OPEC has slightly revised its world economic growth forecast for 2022 to 3.3%, “given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies.”
However, and according to the organisation’s April Monthly Oil Market Report, the 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%.
In the rest of 2023, OPEC sees uncertainties surrounding the global economy and interest rate hikes as factors to the downside. Meanwhile, falling inflation could provide central banks “with room for an accommodative monetary policy towards the end of the year.”
In terms of supply and demand, the report said that the world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. “However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d.”
In the meantime, large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023, according to the report. “OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.”