World oil demand will climb by 2 mb/d in 2023 to a record 101.9 mb/d, according to the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for April.
‘’Reflecting the widening disparity between regions, non-OECD countries, buoyed by a resurgent China, will account for 90% of growth. OECD demand, dragged down by weak industrial activity and warm weather, contracted by 390 kb/d y-o-y in 1Q23, its second consecutive quarter of decline. Jet/kerosene accounts for 57% of 2023 gains,” the OMR sid.
It noted that extra cuts by OPEC+ will push world oil supply down 400 kb/d by end-2023. From March-December, gains of 1 mb/d from non-OPEC+ fail to offset a 1.4 mb/d decline from the producer bloc. For the year as a whole, global oil production growth slows to 1.2 mb/d versus 4.6 mb/d in 2022. Non-OPEC+, led by the US and Brazil, drives the 2023 expansion, rising 1.9 mb/d. OPEC+ is expected to drop by 760 kb/d.
Global refining throughput is forecast to average 82 mb/d this year, 0.1 mb/d lower than in last month’s Report due to weaker 1Q23 data. Annual gains will double to 2.1 mb/d from 1Q23 to 2Q23, as runs in the US normalise and with Chinese activity materially higher than a weak 2Q22 baseline. On average, 2023 crude runs will approach pre-covid levels but remain 0.3 mb/d below 2019 average throughputs.
Global inventories held largely steady in February after surging by 58 mb in the previous month. Oil on water and non-OECD stocks fell by 11.5 mb and 2.1 mb, respectively, while total OECD inventories rose by 8.8 mb. OECD commercial stocks built by 9.6 mb, narrowing the deficit against the five-year average to 7.5 mb. Preliminary data for the US, Europe and Japan show a hefty 38.9 mb decline in March.